Punxsutawney Phil Doesn't Know Shit

          Yesterday was February 2nd and that means Groundhog's Day. It's a day involving fun and festivities in Punxsutawney, PA. Every year since 1887, Punxsutawney (or one of his MANY incarnations) is aroused at sunrise and brought out of his home to see if he casts a shadow. If he does, it means six more weeks of winter. If he doesn't, it means an early spring. That's right, a groundhog predicting the weather. As if it's not bad enough that meteorologists can't correctly predict the weather in the coming weeks, we expect an animal and it's shadow to tell us if winter will continue or not.

          The thing about this tradition is that it is really nothing but a festival in Punxsutawney. They get to have fun, listen to music and eat food. It is an all day celebration of who-knows-what. The very thing that the festivities are centered around is actually a complete failure when it comes to the historical stats.

          According to Live Science, the Groundhog Club's (yep, they even have a club) records indicate that Phil and his incarnations have predicted 99 long winters and 15 early springs. There is no record of the predictions for 9 years. Now, let's take a look at the accuracy of those predictions. Stormfax Almanac's records indicate that Phil's predictions of a long winter were correct a mere 39% of the time. So, more than half of the time, Phil was just plain wrong about long winters. According to Tim Roche, a meteorologist at Weather Underground, when Phil predicted an early spring he was correct 47% of the time. Again, not even half.

          What does that mean? Well, grab a quarter and you've got two sides- heads and tails. If you flip that coin, there is a 50% chance it will land on heads and 50% chance it will land on tails. Designate one side for early spring and one for a longer winter. When you flip that coin you've got better odds of a correct prediction than that groundhog and his stupid shadow.

          It is for this reason that I get annoyed as shit every year when that goddamn groundhog is all over the newspaper and the Internet. He's an animal that we coax out of his home (that we provide for him year round) to see if he has a shadow. It's beyond absurd. In fact, I'd go so far as to call it downright asinine. Every time someone mentions that little animal's prediction I feel pity for them and a little bit of anger. Why must we continue to participate in such a ridiculous event when it is proven to be absolutely false? Because it's a tradition? There are a lot of things that are tradition that are stupid and meaningless and the fact that we continue to participate in them is a sign of our stupidity as a society.

          Enjoy your groundhog prediction. Get your hopes up when he says there will be an early spring. Be sad when he calls for six more weeks of winter. Seeing as the odds aren't in his favor, I'm going to go ahead and not give a shit about the predictions of an animal that has no idea what's happening. I'm an intelligent human being. Come and join me, why don't you?

Get it? Got it? Good,

- The Absurdist